Expired Listings and Orange County Real Estate Value
As Orange County Real Estate enters the slow sales era, a number of expired home listings for the 4th Quarter of 2006 have become record high as compared to the last four years of real estate boom. Historically, number of expired listings increase toward the 4th quarter, but in 2006 this trend started as early as as the end of the second quarter.
A similar effect was seen in 4th quarter of 2004 when there was a sudden increase in inventory which lead to an increase in expired listings causing a pull back in home prices. However, the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2005 were able to balance those losses and help the market pick up agian. Besides there was a brisk appreciation in Real Estate value during the first half of the year 2004, that many people did not pay much attention to this depreciation.
The situation is different now, due to consistent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and persistent increases in property value, less people are able to afford homes. Any increase in inventory could lead to further decrease in home prices through 2007, until the buyer's confidence is rebuilt.
Expired Listings from year 2003-2006
| Year | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
| Month | | | | |
| Jan | 669 | 361 | 1080 | 1031 |
| Feb | 406 | 259 | 598 | 637 |
| Mar | 203 | 593 | 1137 | 793 |
| Apr | 339 | 206 | 609 | 869 |
| May | 380 | 232 | 722 | 1078 |
| Jun | 305 | 484 | 494 | 1456 |
| Jul | 352 | 679 | 634 | 1537 |
| Aug | 337 | 880 | 859 | 1643 |
| Sept | 373 | 1037 | 693 | 1858 |
| Oct | 413 | 1278 | 837 | 1898 |
| Nov | 299 | | 809 | 1825 |
| Dec | 361 | 1251 | 937 | 1897 |
| | | | | |
| Total | 4437 | 7260 | 9409 | 16522 |
Comparative Chart for Orange County CA Expired Listings lisitngs for 2003-2006
Information deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Data source is So Cal MLS. Stats for Nov 2004 Expired Listings were not available. This is a market opinion.